Paper trading record
Luigi Trading Ledger
Luigi's strategies on Kalshi's fifteen-minute markets that made more than $50 over the last 30 days, each strategy counted separately on each market.
These are paper trades, not real money. Each trade is simulated against Kalshi's live prices and fees, but no money was at risk, and a simulated fill can be better than a real one would have been. Only strategies above the $50 mark are listed (54 of 347 that traded in the period), so this is a selection of the best, not the whole book.
Day by day
The running paper total of the strategies listed below, one point per Eastern day.
By strategy
Each strategy runs on its own paper money on each market, so the same strategy can appear once per coin. Two strategies that placed exactly the same trades are listed once.
| Strategy | Market | Trades | Won | Per contract | Paper P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luigi Favorite Market | GOLD | 849 | 94% | 2.75c | +$350.21 |
| Spot lead (1 min) | ZEC | 1,078 | 52% | 1.56c | +$247.20 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 3 | SOL | 1,045 | 91% | 1.22c | +$187.80 |
| Luigi Favorite | XRP | 952 | 95% | 1.30c | +$179.14 |
| Fair value v2 | HYPE | 212 | 50% | 5.55c | +$174.40 |
| Flip v2 | BTC | 168 | 32% | 6.66c | +$167.77 |
| Luigi Later Favorite Calm | SILVER | 439 | 96% | 2.55c | +$165.05 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 3 | GOLD | 472 | 92% | 2.31c | +$162.69 |
| Luigi Favorite | SILVER | 382 | 96% | 2.87c | +$160.50 |
| Fair value model | BTC | 817 | 57% | 1.31c | +$160.04 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 4 | DOGE | 697 | 95% | 1.44c | +$148.67 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 2 | DOGE | 717 | 95% | 1.35c | +$143.06 |
| Fair value model | ETH | 313 | 49% | 3.00c | +$139.78 |
| Luigi Later Favorite 3-2 | GOLD | 501 | 95% | 1.82c | +$135.74 |
| Luigi Favorite Market | SILVER | 810 | 92% | 1.13c | +$135.21 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 4 | GOLD | 316 | 96% | 2.86c | +$134.82 |
| Luigi Later Favorite Calm | GOLD | 456 | 95% | 1.97c | +$133.65 |
| Luigi Favorite Market | ETH | 1,834 | 92% | 0.47c | +$130.02 |
| Luigi Favorite Market | XRP | 1,872 | 92% | 0.43c | +$121.31 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 2 | GOLD | 317 | 96% | 2.56c | +$121.20 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 4 | SILVER | 262 | 96% | 3.14c | +$121.16 |
| Spot lead v2 | DOGE | 187 | 41% | 4.39c | +$119.83 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 2 | SILVER | 270 | 96% | 2.93c | +$116.45 |
| Luigi Favorite | DOGE | 983 | 95% | 0.84c | +$115.25 |
| Panic fade v2 | SOL | 779 | 60% | 0.95c | +$106.93 |
| Fair value v2 | DOGE | 221 | 38% | 3.17c | +$104.60 |
| Luigi Later Favorite Calm | WTI | 461 | 95% | 1.47c | +$101.04 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 2 | ETH | 733 | 94% | 0.92c | +$100.66 |
| Luigi Favorite | GOLD | 385 | 95% | 1.74c | +$99.61 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 2 | XRP | 735 | 94% | 0.92c | +$99.54 |
| Luigi Later Favorite Calm Second | SILVER | 358 | 98% | 1.85c | +$95.34 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 4 | ETH | 726 | 94% | 0.87c | +$94.58 |
| Luigi Later Favorite 3-2 | SILVER | 471 | 95% | 1.35c | +$93.82 |
| Luigi Later Favorite 3-2 Second | SILVER | 373 | 98% | 1.72c | +$92.78 |
| Spot lead | NEAR | 215 | 42% | 2.68c | +$85.74 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 4 | XRP | 721 | 94% | 0.80c | +$85.39 |
| Luigi Favorite Market | SOL | 1,842 | 92% | 0.31c | +$84.37 |
| Fair value model | ZEC | 236 | 42% | 2.34c | +$82.22 |
| Luigi Later Favorite 3-2 Second | GOLD | 404 | 97% | 1.31c | +$79.47 |
| Luigi Favorite Market | DOGE | 1,809 | 92% | 0.28c | +$76.39 |
| Spot lead | DOGE | 82 | 43% | 6.30c | +$73.82 |
| Spot lead v2 | HYPE | 187 | 44% | 2.73c | +$72.98 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 3 Guard | SOL | 1,064 | 91% | 0.46c | +$72.41 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 3 | ETH | 994 | 91% | 0.48c | +$71.72 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 2 | SOL | 756 | 94% | 0.64c | +$71.03 |
| Luigi Later Favorite Calm Second | GOLD | 371 | 97% | 1.24c | +$69.09 |
| Luigi Later Favorite Calm Second | WTI | 378 | 97% | 1.24c | +$68.42 |
| Luigi Favorite | SOL | 999 | 94% | 0.48c | +$68.00 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 3 | XRP | 1,082 | 91% | 0.41c | +$65.02 |
| Fair value model | BNB | 272 | 49% | 1.60c | +$64.30 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 4 | WTI | 291 | 95% | 1.41c | +$61.65 |
| Fair value model | NEAR | 237 | 46% | 1.66c | +$58.95 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 4 | SOL | 740 | 94% | 0.49c | +$52.85 |
| Luigi Favorite Market 3 | SILVER | 395 | 91% | 0.90c | +$51.80 |
By market
| Coin | Trades | Won | Paper P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,071 | 95% | +$1286.47 |
| SILVER | 3,760 | 95% | +$1032.11 |
| DOGE | 4,696 | 88% | +$781.61 |
| SOL | 7,225 | 89% | +$643.39 |
| XRP | 5,362 | 93% | +$550.41 |
| ETH | 4,600 | 89% | +$536.77 |
| ZEC | 1,314 | 50% | +$329.42 |
| BTC | 985 | 53% | +$327.81 |
| HYPE | 399 | 47% | +$247.38 |
| WTI | 1,130 | 96% | +$231.10 |
| NEAR | 452 | 44% | +$144.69 |
| BNB | 272 | 49% | +$64.30 |